WHY FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL WILL FAIL - PART II

BETWEEN A ROCK AND A HARD PLACE

Will Florida's High Speed Rail efforts crash THIS hard? Let's just say if they don't make some radical adjustments and trash the assumption that Orlando has to be the hub of a massive "hub and spokes railroad," then THIS IS where it is heading.

It's easy to spot the Northeast climb of the HSR route as it pulls away from Tampa, that's a heck of a way to get pointed Southeast.

Even if the entire project for Florida High Speed Rail, gets the blessing of the Federal Department of Transportation, and 100% financing, it is headed for a crash that might well bring down the whole industry.

Reason number 5 is not anyone's opinion about riders or ridership, it is however a story written in geography and no one short of The All Mighty could fix it. In one scenario (alternative "A") the train will run from Tampa, Northeast to Orlando, then with about a 10 degree turn, continue East to Melbourne (Space Coast Beaches). From Melbourne the new railroad turns 90 degrees South, and would likely hug some combination of the I-95 or Florida East Coast right-of-way, all the way through Fort Pierce - West Palm Beach - Ft. Lauderdale to Miami. Certainly no other route in the history of Florida, has ever served so many people in such a short stage length. Population is good, high speed is good, new railroads are good, so why does this one stand out as a bad plan?

To get to the answer one needs only to study the alternative routes from Orlando Southward to Miami. The Second Alternative "B" would turn South at the Orlando International Airport and roughly follow the historic Florida East Coast Railways Kissimmee River Valley line along or near the Florida Turnpike Alignment all the way to West Palm Beach - Ft. Lauderdale to Miami. This is the shortest of the current planned routes from Tampa to Miami via Orlando, but it sacrifices virtually every village, town and city on the East Coast of the State, North of West Palm Beach, to accomplish it's goal, and still maintains what is for all practical purposes a 100 degree turn, a "Fatal Corner" in the middle of the railroad system.

Alternative "C" would be the slowest schedule from Orlando to Miami, but the cheapest build, following the CSX Railroad. Running from St. Petersburg - Tampa - Auburndale - Orlando International Airport, as well as a line from Alburndale southeast to Lake Wales - Sebring - West Palm Beach - Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami. It would eliminate the need for Tampa/St. Petersburg trains to pass through Disney World - Orange County Convention Center and Orlando international Airport, before heading to the lower East Coast and Miami. So ironically the slowest option for Orlando, would be the fastest option for the Tampa Bay communities, but the hard place seems to be missing all of the Beach Communities North of West Palm Beach.

So Far the only map that makes ANY sense, is this largely ignored 2008, ICE Train Plan

4 rail lines into Orlando and they still miss the direct connection with Jacksonville, not to mention the line of the center of the State running virtually from Miami to LAKE CITY, guess it's comforting to know Tallahassee has a sense of humor.

It's a crazy curse to plan under but the bottom line for Florida is, by ignoring the historic travel patterns and trying to make Orlando into a railroad cross roads that it never was, has put us in a unique position. We can either build the fastest route and skip most of the cities, or, we can build through most of the cities and lose the fast train.

Due to the Fatal Corner, a high speed train that rips along at 120 mph, is still going to consume all of 4:00 hours between St. Petersburg and Miami, and 2:30 hours between Orlando and Miami alone. Since this is travel time the dwell time in the stations would have to be added in to any schedule. Leaving St. Petersburg by train, stations would be initially located in Tampa, Lakeland, Disney World, Orange County Convention Center, Orlando International Airport, Melbourne, Ft. Pierce, West Palm Beach, Ft. Lauderdale, and Miami. Dwell times of just 2 minutes per station average would add another 20 minutes to the through schedule. A schedule of 4 hours and 20 minutes between end points via the fastest train in America can be easily trumped by a 1968 Volkswagen Micro-Bus full or hippies at 4:00 hours even, on I-75. This is easy math, because the hippies in that micro-bus won't be traveling 120 miles Northeast to go Southeast of Tampa/St. Petersburg.

The Bus, Greyhound, La Cubana or Southeastern starts looking better and better as Florida's number one "Alternative."

Add in a fare of around $70 dollars for an end to end ticket, plus car rental, taxi or bus fare at the other end, and keeping with the Micro-Bus starts to look better and better. The time/dollar economics doesn't get any better with a simple Tampa/St. Petersubrg - Orlando trip either, because for $30 bucks, one is still going to have to get to Orlando from "Orlando!" By the time that taxi rolls to a stop in Winter Park, Maitland or Sanford, that lone Amtrak train will be half way to Jacksonville, making the entire system, either route option A, B, or C.

The last public transportation alternative seems a mockery of the states so-called "showcase HSR system." Bottom line? $25 dollars and a Greyhound ticket will get you there faster, and Greyhound has Wi-Fi!

Stay tuned as we move on to part 3 of this series, and look at Florida's surface travel patterns, historic railroad routes and gateways, as well as Southeast High Speed Rail. Only in Part III of "WHY FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL WILL FAIL."

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WHY FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL WILL FAIL! (PART 1) Reprint

BIG MISTAKE, BIG, HUGE!
PART ONE

Perhaps I'm not the most loved transportation guy in this State, but I refuse to label a clearly flawed project as a winner. Florida High Speed Rail (AS PLANNED JAN 2010) is a disaster waiting to happen. There are several reasons for this, that if corrected, would find me as the systems biggest advocate. But as promised a week ago, this article will detail why Florida High Speed Rail will fail.



REASON NUMBER ONE/ORLANDO/THE ORLANDO STATION LOCATION:
The current route completely ignores Orlando and it's sprawling metropolitan area. Stretching from Deland on the north to Kissimmee on the south, over 60 miles of lineal city.

So the high speed rail planners have the railroad from Tampa, down the center of Interstate 4, to Disney World, then curving South to the Orange County Convention Center and the planned system hub which focuses on the Orlando International Airport.

Anyone that has ever had the displeasure of driving or using transit to the Orlando Airport can tell you that shortly after inventing the "Iron Maiden," and "The Rack," both ancient torture devices were replaced by Orlando's Beach Line Turnpike, Orange Blossom Trail, Highway's 436, 17-92, I-4, and the East-West Expressway. In short, the airport using the facilities of the former McCoy Air Force Base, is in one of those proverbial impossible locations, with no clear access from any point in the city. This access problem alone should scrap the current plans. Calculate at least one full hour to drive from any point in the city to the Airport to catch a train.



REASON NUMBER TWO/TAMPA/IGNORING A STATION AND ITS CONNECTIONS:
Tampa. Some years ago, Florida bowed to pressure from the Tampa Bay area communities to buy the former Tampa Union Station (TUS), which sits just above the downtown on Nebraska Avenue. This classic station from the early 1900's is a compact head-house design with what were once 10 tracks and covered platforms. Amtrak still serves the station coming in from the east between I-4 and the Cross Town Expressway.

So in their infinite wisdom, the HSR Authority, has decided a new station in the middle of a Expressway Interchange, about a dozen blocks northwest is the place for a "new" train station. This choice makes no sense at all considering the infrastructure is already in place at TUS, already connected to Amtrak and HART, and already paid for.

REASON NUMBER THREE/IGNORING VITAL RAIL INFRASTRUCTURE:
As the entire current project plan avoids current rail infrastructure, one cannot help but wonder if our highway centric planners in Tampa's USF/CUTR (a highway think tank that influences all Florida transportation decisions and is decidedly anti-rail) or FDOT in Tallahassee, have planned to fail? Distance from infrastructure that works, regardless of age or opinion, just for the sake of new and shinny is irresponsible in the 33Rd degree.



REASON NUMBER FOUR/THE REAL SPRAWL RAIL:
Last but certainly not least is the routing of the entire system on I-4, then claiming it will help curb sprawl. This is a simple diversion of the truth and Tallahassee knows it. I-4 is as much as 10 miles NORTH of every community from Orlando to Tampa. While these are certainly not large cities, they have in effect filled in to make up a megalopolis. The High Speed Rail will miss Kissimmee, Davenport, Haines City, Winter Haven, Auburndale, Winston, Plant City, Dover and Mango, as well as the aforementioned Tampa Union Station/Transportation Center site.

The claim of convenient transportation just doesn't stand close scrutiny. Convenient for what? Tampa? The HSR plan misses the connections at TUS and the urbanized core making Tampa rather unlikely to break ridership records. Lakeland? Hardly, does Lakeland even have bus service that far north? Walking from the HSR to downtown in a tropical thunderstorm should be appealing. Disney? AH HA! PERFECT! How did that happen? Someone please tell me which rail dependent residents live in Disney World besides a very rich mouse? Orange County Convention Center at International Drive? Besides serving the occasional Conventioneers this station will also serve Wet and Wild, with Sea World, The Holy Land and Universal just a few miles down the road. Orlando Airport? As we've already seen, no locals are going to waste an hour driving out to OIA to catch a train that would take one hour to get to Tampa, making a two hour trip out of a ONE HOUR and 28 MINUTE CAR RIDE. Not to mention airport parking fee's and rental cars in Tampa, plus rail fare.



Consider that every single community along the route, will have developers quickly buy up and pave the several miles between the current town limits and I-4/HSR. They will consume thousands of acres of fragile, water short, Florida land, and their customers will demand their own stations, slowing the whole system down to a fast Amtrak-like pace. The ability of our state to set up more mindless sprawl in the name of the most environmentally friendly mode of transportation, borders on criminal.

So in part one we have seen that High Speed Rail, planned by the boys and girls at one of the most rail hostile places on earth, is a washout. Tune in later when we bring you MORE reasons why $9 Billion dollars later, this train will fail to arrive.

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FLORIDA HIGH SPEED RAIL

JACKSONVILLE AT HIGH SPEED... 1947 Style

Southern Railway in 1947, heading our way through Tennessee and Georgia. After breakfast we'll be rolling past the 15 platforms, and 32 tracks, of the great Jacksonville Terminal. In those days 7 railroad lines, and 4 major railroad carriers, met at the downtown station. Today, 6 lines and 4 major railroad carriers still do!

In 2009 Florida has finally made the leap to establish passenger trains throughout our state once again. Sadly these same people are putting a huge amount of energy and effort into a largely useless High Speed Rail plan. If Florida would just look back a few years, they would find that we have been there and done that already. Does Tallahassee even understand that Jacksonville is the railroad hub of Florida? Why are they focusing on Orlando and Mickey Mouse? Why would they promote a hub and spokes railroad system, when nothing like that has ever worked on the ground before? Sometimes your blogger wishes for those simpler times of 1947.

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SPRAWL RAIL, Blessing or Curse?

Downtown Maitland Florida, before Sunrail, we have to be reminded of where the downtown and railroad station were. One of the highest dollar residential area's North of Orlando, it's easy to see the center of the town no longer plays a major role in the midst of miles of planned communities. If Sunrail is to cause development to happen, it will be in downtown Maitland, Lake Mary, Longwood, Altamonte Springs, Etc.. If Sunrail can bring the development back to it's historic center, ending sprawl, I say, "Bring it on."

SPRAWLRAIL?

Does that term send nightmare visions of Los Angeles type sprawl extending for endless miles caused by a railroad? If not, your not getting the message that is being sold by the supporters of Florida High Speed Rail. They want us all to believe that the recent deal with CSX for Orlando's long awaited Commuter "SUNRAIL" Project will promote sprawl, with virtually no riders. The claim has been that somehow Sunrail is a secret deal with developers. Let's look at those claims based on some easy facts.

Sure the Sunrail line WILL spur more development, there are already plans as well as construction all along the route.

BINGO, Along it, not 5 miles away from it. Commuter Rail creates dense concentrations of urban life centered around stations. Commuter Rail development will include urban, in town type Publix, Walmart, and such, but rarely if ever does it cause auto dependent plaza style sprawl in outlaying area's. The reason for this is found in the very concept itself, by nature Commuter Rail allows one to PARK the family gas guzzler, and ride. Commuter Rail certainly doesn't encourage more automobile use.

The people who live in auto dependent suburban areas, will no longer have to crowd the lone Interstate. Their trips will have the option of being greatly shortened and in many cases eliminated. Autos will pour out of the suburban tracts and into park and ride lots where their owners will take the train.

Without those automobiles people must stay centered on the stations or the concept of centrally located mass transit. Any developers who ignore this unwritten rule of nearness, will fail. Trust me, developers will follow Sunrail, but they are smart enough to realize every mile from the station equals less and less sales.

Typical Commuter Rail downtown revival in Layton City, Utah, Note where the development is taking place. In addition to the new Station, Utah DOT is also doing a study for a proposed Interchange that would be built near the Station. Layton City has designated the area as a Redevelopment Project Area and is focusing on bringing new business to the area and revitalizing existing infrastructure. There is a lot of interest in Old Downtown and the area is poised to become a major attraction along the Commuter Rail Line.

Commuter rail will force Florida into one more revelation, in Orlando or in Jacksonville, wherever we add connections, the state is about to discover that hourly bus operations are not service, they are mere accommodations. Just one more urbanest change that is headed our way like an oncoming train.

The Sunrail Train will run from Downtown to Downtown, just like Amtrak

A good friend recently listed reasons NOT to live on the Central Florida Corridor today:

1. Highly inaccessible.
2. Cheap tract home development.
3. Limited commercial base.
4. Lack of diversity and culture.
5. No industrial base.
6. Cheap looking architecture.
7. Not walkable.

Will Sunrail make this worse? Not a chance. These homes aren't going to go away, and their communities long past the rural stage are suffering from the inside out. The more central one locates in these cities, the worse the transportation dilemma and maze becomes. So the older builds are all in the "downtown's," and the newer homes and shops just keep piling on the parameter. The downtown area's become less functional with each new band of outlaying development.

The premise that Sunrail will encourage more of such irresponsible development is completely false. Sunrail will run on the CSX tracks, and what is today's CSX Railroad, was there over 100 years ago. What this means to the communities on line is anywhere there is a downtown, there and only there, will one find the train. So since it will focus all eyes back on the city centers, all Sunrail development will be in the sectors that have long been ignored and even become blighted. Sunrail won't cause Sprawl, in fact when that 5:00 o:clock whistle blows, those trains will stand ready to take you home, to the DOWNTOWN of your choice.

The Orlando CSX deal, will make this dream a reality for not just Central Florida, but for Tampa, and best of all, Jacksonville. This scene in Dallas, shows their remanfactured RDC cars in action, roumor has it they have made contact with us for these very cars.

In the next article, we shall examine a true ill conceived "Sprawl Rail Plan," one so bad that it can only lead to disaster. Taking the negatives and blaming them on Sunrail is a smoke screen, so tune in as we tackle, "Why Florida's High Speed Rail Plan is an Oncoming Train Wreck."

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Welcome Ray LaHood

NEW READER WELCOMED

Jacksonville Transit wishes to welcome our newest reader, Mr. Ray LaHood, United States Secretary of Transportation. Hopefully the Secretary will see some of the hip shooting posts that deal with sensitive subjects like Florida's disastrous HSR plan, from the view point of a pro-rail, pro-mass transit, pseudo retired consultant. He'll also read of Amtrak's apocalyptic Florida rail system, and interstate connections,or lack of the same, as opposed to our historic travel patterns. Jacksonville, and it's heavy need for Port Rail, LRT, Streetcars, Commuter Rail, Skyway Extension, and even connecting BRT, Bus, and new concept Express Bus services, are all here too. "New Concept Bus?" Yes, he'll read it here because this is the only place it exists, so far.

The harsh critiques of Jacksonville's so called Transportation Center are spilled out across the screen throughout the blog, with much, much, more to come. So Mr. Secretary, check your diplomacy at the door, sit back, and enjoy some pointed sharp shooting blogging, who knows, perhaps you'll comment sometime?

The Florida Mystery

ARE NEANDERTHALS PLANNING FLORIDA'S FUTURE?

Traffic counts, road money down in Palm Beach Count
By Paul Quinlan
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer:
"In the next few years, the road program is not going to be able to build very many roads," said County Engineer George Webb. "But at the same time, if we don't have people moving in, we're not going to be that deficient."

As the number of drivers falls, service along the existing road network has improved. Only 2 percent of county roads are performing below their designed level of service, Webb said."

RAIL! Railroad track never has to be widened. Further if Palm Beach County is at a build out state so that only 2% of the roads are performing below expectations, then one would think we would be putting our focus on Rail and Tri-Rail. Our cities, Jacksonville, Miami, West Palm Beach, Tampa, Orlando, TALLAHASSEE, and our State Leaders, have proved to be mental Neanderthals, in a sea of transportation brilliance.

California, New York, Maryland, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, even Oklahoma, are so far ahead of us we can't find them on radar. But we beg for Billions to build HSR from the Orlando Airport to an amusement park to a freeway interchange in Tampa. This poorly planned "Rat Rail" project coupled with a failure to properly fund Tri-Rail is going to cost all of us dearly.



Florida already has Amtrak Service, though we have allowed even that to decline from 12 trains daily to 4. We stood by to build a trail on the key West Palm Beach cut-off, between Auburndale, and Wildwood, and didn't say a word when Amtrak itself was fighting budget cutters in eliminating all service to Ocala, and Gainesville. We HAVE Amtrak, logic would dictate that the national rail passenger corporation be the tool with which to reach more for less.

Somewhere there must be a reward for this reckless behavior. Perhaps another 10 lanes? All of us have heard the expression "Tax and Spend," well maybe we are getting what we've asked for, my friends, welcome to the world of "Cut and Chop."

Florida East Coast will roll out AMTRAK in 2.6 Years

MR. FLAGLERS LOVELY SPEEDWAY TO AMERICA'S PLAYGROUND WILL ROLL AGAIN!

1968, it was an overcast afternoon when train number 2, The Florida East Coast Local to Jacksonville, whistled through St. Augustine, for the last time. If memory serves me correctly it was running four hours late due to official farewells, speeches and crowds. When the big General Motors EMD E Unit rumbled past us on the St. Augustine station platform it seemed to be weeping. Maybe it was just the late hour playing shadows across the tracks, or the mars light rolling and sweeping back and forth over the line ahead, but there was a tangible air of finality for a man made object, that I had never felt before.

Those final miles, there were only two first class passengers, though the coach was full. The train usually only warranted a single locomotive and two cars. A coach, and a tavern lounge observation car. The later came from the FEC'S old East Coast Champion pool, and depending on direction was either the St. Lucie Sound, or the Lake Okeechobee. I always felt these two cars had such comfort and luxury, plus beverage service, that they easily warranted the extra couple of dollars they commanded. Just before Conductor Fields picked up his portable boarding stool, and waved us off, I finally climbed aboard. Making certain I was the last paying first class passenger on a Florida East Coast Train.

The miles clicked by way too fast, as we blew through San Marco, and past the abandoned South Jacksonville Station. In just a matter of seconds with bell ringing, we came alongside the platforms of Jacksonville Terminal. We came to a stop out around track 15 - 20 of 29 at the grand old station. My friend and I stayed behind and spoke with the aging conductor as he wiped his eyes and told us the rail fans had torn up his train in coach, and he gave each of us a set of headrest covers. We thanked him profusely and headed out the door, again myself making sure I was the last person to ever step off an FEC passenger train. We learned that this was a fact in the station, where they told us the Southbound train had arrived in Miami, an hour or two ahead of us.

Then came 2002, and a sudden urge by the State of Florida to restore service to the Florida East Coast. Insane as it seems, a region at least as populated as Portland - Seattle, Chicago - Milwaukee, Los Angeles - San Diego, had been caught up in Florida's unique highway only thinking for an eternity. I believe those in the know about railroads in Florida, were pinching ourselves that this most anti-rail state was doing something positive. But all the hype was for nothing, Bush slashed Amtrak's budget and rather then gain a new route, something our state had already funded, a freeze was put on the whole Amtrak network. Worse still, for "economics" we are told, Amtrak decided to leave the former "S" line down the center of the State, Waldo (Gaineville/UF) , Ocala, Wildwood and Dade City, and consolidate our only two remaining trains on the former Atlantic Coast Line, or "A" line of the CSX. Over on the Florida East Coast route, we were once again, abandoned.

Spin the clock forward and we have the new economic recovery package, and Florida wants it's share. The state dusted off their poorly planned high speed rail plan claiming that thousands of travelers will go from the Orlando Airport, to Disney, and hence to a freeway interchange in Tampa. Phase two would run from the Orlando Airport to Miami's new inter modal terminal. In the process, perhaps as a second thought, or perhaps to toss a bone to Jacksonville, the Florida East Coast train proposal suddenly reappeared on a "TRACK 2" application to the FRA.

The application applies for funds to raise the track speed for passenger trains to 90 mph, which on the FEC will involve mostly signal changes as the track is superb. In November of 2012, Amtrak will start splitting both the Silver Meteor and the Silver Star in Jacksonville. A section of both trains will run down the Florida East Coast, while another section runs to Tampa on the CSX. The state and Amtrak also want to establish 3 more trains daily between Jacksonville and Miami, on the FEC route, creating a new Amtrak corridor service, not unlike the "Local to Miami" and "Local to Jacksonville" of 1968.

There is no money in the application for reconstruction of the rail side of Jacksonville Terminal, but there are plans to see it restored. Right now it's a foot race between a lethargic Jacksonville government, very short on ideas and leadership, and a clique in Tallahassee, that has shifted a great deal of power from North to Central and South Florida. To do the station properly, the Convention Center built on that property needs to come down. This would leave only the original rail buildings, and the concourse of the Convention Center. The entire plan for the Transportation Authority's, "Jacksonville Regional Transportation Center," will easily fit into the space of the former Terminal and Railway Post Office location. Will anyone in city hall or Tallahassee have sense enough to pull it off? Only time will tell, if not we are prepared to scatter this project over 6 blocks of LaVilla, in downtown. Hardly a Transportation Center and more of a Transportation Neighborhood. Either way, the coals are in the fire, and there is no time to waste, Jacksonville either moves forward now, or surrenders it's rail supremacy to a lesser facility... and THAT would be a tragedy.

AMTRAK TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST!

NOVEMBER 2012, IS THE TARGET DATE FOR THE FIRST PASSENGER TRAINS TO ROLL ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST SINCE 1968.

From the Treasure Coast Palm comes this interesting quote:

In early October, the Florida Department of Transportation will apply for some $70 million to $100 million in federal economic stimulus funds to re-establish passenger rail service from Jacksonville to West Palm Beach.

Theoretically, the project could be given a green light by November, with funding documents in FDOT’s hands by December or January and construction beginning in early 2010, said Kim Delaney, growth management director for the Treasure Coast Regional Planning Council.
Under that scenario, the golden spike could be driven and ribbons cut by October 2012, Delaney said.

“This project is already embedded in FDOT’s work schedule,” Delaney said. “There is a huge amount of work already underway,” ranging from preliminary engineering, right-of-way acquisition to environmental screening, she said.

On Monday, officials from Stuart, Martin County, two area planning organizations, FDOT and Amtrak met to begin amassing facts, figures and data in support of a Stuart Amtrak station near downtown.

There will be more on this exciting story in the near future. To read the complete article about the new Stuart Amtrak Station see: <http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2009/aug/31/no-headline---mc_amtrak/>

Another article with regards to Vero Beach, can be found at: <http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2009/aug/31/all-aboard-vero-beach-chooses-3-possible-sites/>

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